realpep_conf

The RealPEP Online Conference “Precipitation and Flash Flood Prediction from
Minutes to Days” took place on October 5-7, 2020
Website https://indico.scc.kit.edu/event/883/page/588-recorded-talks

Flash floods in small to meso-scale catchments and intense precipitation over cities from severe local storms pose increasing threats to our society. For the timely prediction of such events, the value of high-resolution and high-quality quantitative precipitation estimation and corresponding forecasts cannot be overrated.
Seamless predictions harmonizing nowcasting and NWP across forecast lead times from minutes to days would greatly help to improve the value and efficiency of warnings. We address recent ideas and achievements along the process chain from quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), observation-based nowcasting (QPN), combination of nowcasting with NWP and flash-flood pre-diction (FFP). Area-covering and high-resolution polarimetric weather radar observations current-ly provide core information for QPE/QPN like precipitation intensity, hydrometeor types, and wind gusts augmented with satellite and lightning observations.
With the perspective to enable/improve seamless predictions of surface precipitation and flash floods from the time of observation to days ahead, potential topics of this session are advances in quantitative high-resolution precipitation retrieval including promising sensor synergies, advances in nowcasting including life cycle information from radar and satellite observations, advances in NWP data assimilation for short-term forecasts, concepts for merging observation-based QPN with NWP, and concepts to transfer the uncertain precipitation estimates over the forecast range into river runoff and flash-flood predictions.

Your RealPEP Online Conference 2020 Organizing Committee
Silke Troemel, Christian Chwala, Julius Polz, Thomas Poméon, Cintia Carbajal Henken, Ricardo Reinoso Rondinel, Elisabeth Bauernschubert, Clemens Simmer, Roland Potthast

Recorded talks

Session 1: Towards seamless prediction

Dave Turner: The High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) numerical weather prediction model

Ulrich Blahak: SINFONY - the combination of Nowcasting and Numerical Weather Prediction on the convective scale at DWD

Silke Trömel: The research group on Near-Realtime Quantitative Precipitation Estimation and Prediction (RealPEP)

Session 2: Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE)

Alexander Ryzhkov: Recent progress in polarimetric radar QPE

Jian Zhang: A specific attenuation based radar QPE for operations

Petar Bukovcic: Polarimetric radar QPE in aggregated snow

Ju-Yu Chen: Assessing the benefits of specific attenuation for quantitative precipitation estimation with a C-band radar network

Remko Uijlenhoet: Opportunistic Sensing of Rainfall

Martin Fencl and Vojtech Bares: Commercial Microwave Links for Urban Rainfall-runoff Modelling

Julius Polz: Synergies of commercial microwave links and polarimetric weather radars

Session 3: Quantitative Precipitation Nowcasting (QPN)

Loris Foresti: Nowcasting radar precipitation growth & decay in complex orography: a probabilistic machine learning approach

Marc Schleiss: Foresight: Forecasting Storms with Insight

Aitor Atencia: Scale Characterization and Correction of Diurnal Cycle Errors in Nowcasting

Ricardo Reinoso-Rondinel: Radar-based Nowcasting: Spatio-Temporal Analysis of the STEPS Methodology

Jordi Figueras i Ventura: On the relationship between lightning activity and convective cell severity

Cintia Carbajal Henken: Assessment of satellite- and ground-based observed total column water vapor variabilities and their relation to convective initiation in Germany

Xavier Calbet: Towards a consistent multi-sensor QPE: NWC SAF's satellite QPE and AEMET's multi-sensor QPE and FFP

Session 4: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)

Sarah Dance: Exploiting new observations and data assimilation techniques for improved forecasting of convective precipitation

Jacob Carlin: The synergistic use of polarimetric radar data and one-dimensional microphysical models for precipitation nowcasting

Lucas Reimann: Identification of Hydrometeor Mixing Ratio Retrievals Suitable for Dual-Polarimetric C-Band Radar Observations over Germany

Klaus Vobig: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tuF33BptazQ&feature=youtu.be|Improvements on the assimilation of radar reflectivities

Session 5: Flash Flood Prediction

Marco Borga: Flash flood hydrologic and geomorphic response: observations needs for improved risk and basin management

Carina Furusho-Percot: The PDE-based hydrologic model ParFlow performance in flash-flood nowcast

Darren Lumbroso: How can the uncertainty in indirect estimates of extreme flash flood discharges be reduced?

Francesco Silvestro: Improving short range hydrological forecasts by using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in meteorological models

Linda Speight: Turning convective forecasts into flood warnings that lead to action

Angelica Caseri: Rainfall nowcasting using deep learning method in southeast of Brazil

Conference Format
The RealPEP online conference 2020 has been carried out using the German Research Network DFN. The talks had been streamed, while discussions took place in a range of targeted discussion rooms, moderated by the RealPEP research group principle investigators and research scientists.

German Research Foundation (DFG) Research Group RealPEP
RealPEP is a German Research Foundation funded Research Group with members from the University of Bonn, Research Center Jülich, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Freie Universität Berlin and DWD as main partners. It is closely linked to DWD activities of the SINFONY project with 25 scientists working on the con-vergence of nowcasting and NWP. Main Topics are Precipitation and Flood Estimation and Fore-casting from Minutes to Days.